Cognitive Bias Explorer

Projection bias

Projection bias is overestimating how much your future self will share the tastes, feelings and needs of your present self. It can also mean assuming other people share your current mindset.

In everyday life

Shopping for groceries while hungry, someone buys far more food than they will want to eat later in the week.

On a freezing winter day, you book a summer vacation in a scorching desert, sure the heat will feel wonderful, and by July you regret it.

Why your mind does this

Imagining the past and the future is hard, so the brain uses the present as a template. Assuming things will stay roughly as they are now is a quick and usually workable guide. Making sense of events after the fact also helps us learn lessons and feel in control.

Its family, in 30 seconds: Projecting ourselves

How to spot it

Ask whether your current mood, hunger or energy is shaping a choice meant for a different moment.

How to counter it

Make choices about the future when you are in a neutral state, and picture the specific conditions you will be in then.

Same family: Projecting ourselves

SourcesLoewenstein et al. (2003)Wikipedia

Cognitive Bias Explorer

Cognitive bias · Projecting ourselves

Projection bias

Projection bias is overestimating how much your future self will share the tastes, feelings and needs of your present self. It can also mean assuming other people share your current mindset.