Moral luck
Not a bias
Moral luck is judging people as more or less blameworthy based on outcomes they did not control. Two people can make the same choice, yet we blame the one whose choice happened to turn out badly far more harshly.
Philosophers still debate whether it is fair for outcomes to affect how much someone is to blame, so not everyone agrees this is a mistake.
In everyday life
Two friends drive home after a few drinks; one arrives safely and the other hits a pedestrian, and people see only the second as a bad person.
Two coworkers each forget to lock the office one night, but only one of the nights ends in a break-in, and you think only that coworker is irresponsible.
Why your mind does this
Imagining the past and the future is hard, so the brain uses the present as a template. Assuming things will stay roughly as they are now is a quick and usually workable guide. Making sense of events after the fact also helps us learn lessons and feel in control.
Its family, in 30 seconds: Projecting ourselves
How to spot it
Ask whether you would judge the person the same way if the outcome had been different.
What you can do
Judge people by what they chose and knew at the time, and keep that separate from how things happened to turn out.
Habits that catch it
- Grade decisions by what you knew
Good choices can end badly and bad ones can get lucky. Judge the reasoning with the information available at the time.
Same family: Projecting ourselves
SourcesWilliams & Nagel (1976)·Wikipedia