Gambler's fallacy
Also known as Monte Carlo fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is believing a random event is less likely because it has happened a lot recently, or more likely because it hasn't happened in a while. Independent events like coin flips have no memory, so past results don't change the next one.
In everyday life
After a roulette wheel lands on black five times in a row, a player bets heavily on red, sure it is 'due'.
You and your partner have four daughters, and you both feel the next baby is almost certain to be a boy.
Why your mind does this
Our ancestors survived by spotting patterns fast: rustling grass might mean a predator, and dark clouds meant rain. Filling gaps with a plausible story lets us act on thin information instead of freezing. A brain that sometimes sees a pattern that isn't there loses less than one that misses a real threat.
How to spot it
Listen for the word 'due', or the feeling that luck has to even out soon.
How to counter it
Remind yourself that each independent event starts fresh, and judge the odds of the next one on its own.